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Performance Tracking

Every pick, on the record

Complete transparency on every verified NBA points position.

A Jan–May 2026 historical backtest replay · not a forward guarantee (forward expectation 55–60%).

Verified record shown: NBA points props only, January–May 2026. Other NBA prop markets are in development and do not yet have a public verified track record.

Win Rate
58.9%
1220 picks evaluated
Total Picks
1220
123 nights
Yield
18.3%
Return on wagered
Bankroll Growth
+$2230
$800 → $3030
CLV
47%
Beat the closing line

Run the record on your bankroll

Same 1.25%/unit sizing, linearly rescaled from the Jan–May 2026 backtest

$
On a $1,000 bankroll~$3,788(+$2,788)

Backtest used $800, same 1.25%/unit sizing. Scaled from the Jan–May 2026 backtest. Past results, not a forward guarantee.

Cumulative Performance

Bankroll over time, starting at $1000

Monthly Breakdown

Click a month to view details

Month
Record
Yield
Win Rate

Did beating the line pay off?

Win rate when our bet beat, matched, or lost the closing line.

Lost valueHeldBeat the line
Over
53.7%
101W / 87L (188)
57.1%
136W / 102L (238)
57.3%
106W / 79L (185)
Under
55.2%
85W / 69L (154)
63.7%
151W / 86L (237)
63.8%
139W / 79L (218)

Complete Pick History

1220 settled NBA points picks across 123 nights, Jan–May 2026

Direction:
Result:
1331 picks
Starting bankroll:$
Final: $1923Profit: +$1123Yield: 8.4%Max DD: 18.6%
1 / 134

Deep Analysis

Where the edge concentrates: by confidence, scoring range, player, and the biggest swings

Performance by Confidence Level

How our picks perform grouped by how confident the model is. Higher confidence = larger predicted edge over the sportsbook.

Profitable (≥58% WR)Marginal (52-58%)Below breakeven
Strongest edge: 12-15% confidence · 68.8% win rate (66W-30L)
<5% edge
57.0%204W-154L
358 picks
5-8% edge
56.7%204W-156L
360 picks
8-10% edge
59.4%101W-69L
170 picks
10-12% edge
52.9%64W-57L
121 picks
12-15% edge
68.8%66W-30L
96 picks
15%+ edge
68.7%79W-36L
115 picks