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Performance Tracking

Every pick, on the record

Complete transparency on every verified NBA points position.

A Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026 historical PTS replay · not a forward guarantee.

Verified record shown: NBA points props only. Settled win rate excludes 81 no-action/unknown audit rows; other NBA prop markets do not yet have a public verified track record.

Win Rate
59.5%
1,222 settled picks
Selected Rows
1,303
81 no-action rows
Yield
19.4%
Return on wagered
Bankroll Growth
+$2369
$800 → $3169
CLV
48%
Beat the closing line

Evidence check: 39,993 evaluated props, one-sided binomial p=1.71e-11, 0 selection-critical NaN cells. CLV coverage: 1,222/1,222 rows, mean 0.11%; sharp-consensus CLV coverage: 857/1,222, mean 0.26%. Store-backed game-line coverage is complete for the Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026 public replay; strict raw odds_game_lines.json provenance remains partial.

Run the record on your bankroll

Same 1.25%/unit sizing, linearly rescaled from the Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026 settled backtest

$
On a $1,000 bankroll~$3,961(+$2,961)

Backtest used $800, same 1.25%/unit sizing. Scaled from the Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026 settled backtest. Past results, not a forward guarantee.

Cumulative Performance

Bankroll over time, starting at $1000

Monthly Breakdown

Click a month to view details

Month
Record
Yield
Win Rate

Did beating the line pay off?

Win rate when our bet beat, matched, or lost the closing line.

Lost valueHeldBeat the line
Over
56.5%
105W / 81L (186)
55.6%
130W / 104L (234)
59.0%
108W / 75L (183)
Under
58.4%
97W / 69L (166)
63.0%
148W / 87L (235)
63.8%
139W / 79L (218)

Complete Pick History

1,222 settled NBA points picks across 130 nights, Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026. The table also preserves no-action/unknown audit rows without counting them as losses.

Direction:
Result:
1303 picks
Starting bankroll:$
Final: $3172Profit: +$2372Yield: 19.4%Max DD: 6.6%
1 / 131

Deep Analysis

Where the edge concentrates: by confidence, scoring range, player, and the biggest swings

Performance by Confidence Level

How our picks perform grouped by how confident the model is. Higher confidence = larger predicted edge over the sportsbook.

Profitable (≥58% WR)Marginal (52-58%)Below breakeven
Strongest edge: 12-15% confidence · 69.5% win rate (73W-32L)
<5% edge
55.7%200W-159L
359 picks
5-8% edge
59.4%208W-142L
350 picks
8-10% edge
57.0%106W-80L
186 picks
10-12% edge
58.8%67W-47L
114 picks
12-15% edge
69.5%73W-32L
105 picks
15%+ edge
67.6%73W-35L
108 picks