Every pick, on the record
Complete transparency on every verified NBA points position.
A Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026 historical PTS replay · not a forward guarantee.
Verified record shown: NBA points props only. Settled win rate excludes 81 no-action/unknown audit rows; other NBA prop markets do not yet have a public verified track record.
Evidence check: 39,993 evaluated props, one-sided binomial p=1.71e-11, 0 selection-critical NaN cells. CLV coverage: 1,222/1,222 rows, mean 0.11%; sharp-consensus CLV coverage: 857/1,222, mean 0.26%. Store-backed game-line coverage is complete for the Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026 public replay; strict raw odds_game_lines.json provenance remains partial.
Run the record on your bankroll
Same 1.25%/unit sizing, linearly rescaled from the Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026 settled backtest
Backtest used $800, same 1.25%/unit sizing. Scaled from the Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026 settled backtest. Past results, not a forward guarantee.
Cumulative Performance
Bankroll over time, starting at $1000
Monthly Breakdown
Click a month to view details
Did beating the line pay off?
Win rate when our bet beat, matched, or lost the closing line.
| Lost value | Held | Beat the line | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56.5% 105W / 81L (186) | 55.6% 130W / 104L (234) | 59.0% 108W / 75L (183) |
| Under | 58.4% 97W / 69L (166) | 63.0% 148W / 87L (235) | 63.8% 139W / 79L (218) |
Complete Pick History
1,222 settled NBA points picks across 130 nights, Jan 1-Jun 13, 2026. The table also preserves no-action/unknown audit rows without counting them as losses.
Deep Analysis
Where the edge concentrates: by confidence, scoring range, player, and the biggest swings
Performance by Confidence Level
How our picks perform grouped by how confident the model is. Higher confidence = larger predicted edge over the sportsbook.