How PropPilot Works

We break each player prop into role, opportunity, efficiency, and game context. For the verified public points model, that means minutes, shot volume, finishing, free throws, tonight's matchup, injuries, rest, rotation changes, and whether a teammate's absence shifts the role.

We project tonight's player outcome using recent performance as a baseline, then adjust for context. Is a key teammate out? Is it a back-to-back? Is the opponent's defense elite or porous? The methodology is designed for NBA player props, while the public verified record currently starts with points.

We don't just predict a single number. We simulate 10,000 possible versions of tonight's game for each player, varying the inputs that drive the target prop. For points, that includes minutes, shots, shooting accuracy, and free throws. This gives us a full picture of what's likely, not just a best guess.

We’re deliberately conservative. Our probabilities account for the fact that no model is perfect; we build in uncertainty so our confidence levels are honest, not inflated. When we say a pick has a 60% chance, it really hits about 60% of the time.

We compare our player-prop probability to market prices from 5+ sportsbooks, removing the house's built-in margin. Published verified picks today are NBA points props only, and must show positive executable EV with strong data support. We size conservatively and evaluate the best available bettable price.