How PropPilot Works
Our methodology, the math behind EV betting, and how to build a winning mindset.
1.Player & Game Analysis
We break down how a player scores: how many minutes they’ll play, how often they shoot, how efficiently they convert, and how often they get to the free throw line. We factor in tonight’s matchup, injuries, rest days, rotation changes, and whether a teammate’s absence shifts their role.
2.Scoring Projection
We project tonight’s scoring using recent performance as a baseline, then adjust for context. Is a key teammate out? Is it a back-to-back? Is the opponent’s defense elite or porous? Our models capture what a 5-game rolling average misses — the specific circumstances of tonight’s game.
3.10,000 Game Simulations
We don’t just predict a single number. We simulate 10,000 possible versions of tonight’s game for each player — varying minutes, shots, shooting accuracy, and free throws. This gives us a full picture of what’s likely, not just a best guess.
4.Honest Probability Estimation
We’re deliberately conservative. Our probabilities account for the fact that no model is perfect — we build in uncertainty so our confidence levels are honest, not inflated. When we say a pick has a 60% chance, it really hits about 60% of the time.
5.Finding the Edge
We compare our points-prop probability to market prices from 5+ sportsbooks, removing the house’s built-in margin. Published picks must show positive executable EV with strong data support. We size conservatively — 1% of bankroll per pick, max 12 picks per night — and evaluate the best available bettable price.
Track Record
Production baseline (Jan – Apr 2026, PTS only, T-65 safe):
- 58.8% WR on 425 picks (Jan – Apr 2026, bettable books only)
- Record: 250W – 175L across 82 nights
- Monthly: 61% / 63% / 60% / 68%
- Yield: 14.0% on $4,250 wagered
- Sharpe ratio: 5.14
- Edge threshold: 5% minimum
Forward expectation: 55–60% WR. Backtest is a validation period, not pristine holdout. Forward live picks are the true test.